Estimative Intelligence in European Foreign Policymaking

The first comparative study of estimative intelligence and strategic surprise in a European context, complementing and testing insights from previous studies centred on the United StatesExtensive empirical analysis of open-source material and interviews in relation to three cases of major surprise: Arab uprisings, ISIS’ rise to power in Syria and Iraq, and the Russian annexation of CrimeaNew theoretical insights into the causes of surprises and performance problems going beyond the debate about