Cognitive Bias in Intelligence Analysis

Tests whether the analysis of competing hypotheses reduces cognitive bias, and proposes a more effective approach Reveals that a key element of current training provided to the UK and US intelligence communities (and likely all 5-EYES and several European agencies) does not have a proven ability to mitigate cognitive biasesDemonstrates that judging the credibility of information from human sources means that intelligence analysis faces greater complexity and cognitive strain than non-intelligenc